Kyrsten Sinema's power grab
What her announcement to leave the Democratic Party is really about.
All day on Friday — following Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s announcement that she was leaving the Democratic Party to become an independent — I kept trying to figure out: Why now?
In her announcement and in media interviews on Friday, she gave her well-crafted and obviously politically tailored statements about how it’s not about politics and that she is instead focused on “how I can deliver for Arizonans.”
But it just doesn’t make sense... Why now?
Why — just days after Democrats secured a 51st vote in the Senate with Raphael Warnock’s win in the Georgia runoff election — would Sinema seem to want to take the wind out of her party’s sails and make such a stunning announcement?
Could it be that Sinema was dismayed by her own party's victory on Tuesday?
Could it be that with Warnock's victory, she found herself marginalized by a 51-49 Democratic majority? After all, the two most important Senators over the last two years have been Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Their willingness to say “no” in the face of a unified Democratic caucus has made them the true King (and Queen) makers of the Senate.
But after Warnock’s victory, suddenly they mean a lot less since Democrats now have a one-vote cushion should any Senator decide to break rank.
With that in mind, what's the next best way to make yourself a King (or Queen) maker again? How about leaving the party, but staying in the caucus and keeping your committee assignments, as Sinema has done?
That means — for the next two years — Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will have to walk a fine line to keep Sinema in the Democratic camp.
With a word, Sinema could leave the caucus — possibly hurtling Democrats back to relying on Vice President Kamala Harris for a tie-breaking vote (something Schumer would no doubt want to avoid).
Furthermore, I’d imagine that Schumer is willing to bend over backward to avoid losing a majority on the committees to which Sinema is assigned, which include the Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs; Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs; Commerce, Science & Transportation; and Veteran’s Affairs committees.
That’s a lot of leverage, folks.
One bright spot for Schumer and President Biden might be that Sinema isn’t on the Judiciary Committee, which means the party would retain a majority on the committee responsible for moving forward with Article III judicial nominations, including nominations to the Supreme Court should there be one in the next two years.
The only X-factor for me — which perhaps someone out there who knows the inner workings of the Senate better than I do could answer — is whether Sinema leaving the caucus would also jeopardize the Democratic majority on the committees to which she is not assigned since the chamber might once again be evenly split… or perhaps better stated as 50-49-1? If you know the answer to this question — please leave a comment or reach out to me!
Either way, Sinema’s announcement on Friday is nothing more than a power grab meant to retain her relevance in the Senate.
There’s been speculation that Sinema’s announcement is geared toward her 2024 reelection bid and whether Democrats will nominate a candidate to challenge her. Perhaps. No doubt, Democrats will not want to see a split vote that hands victory to the Republicans. But if 2024 was Sinema’s real motivation for breaking from the Democratic Party, I think she could have made this announcement at any point over the next year or so. She didn’t need to do it now.
Sinema may claim that this was not a “political” move, but I’m willing to bet that Schumer, McConnell, and her fellow Senators don’t see it that way.