Revisiting my thoughts on the G.O.P. in 2024
Near-term crisis appears averted, but long-term the party is still in trouble
Late last year, I wrote a piece about the existential crisis looming for the Republican Party in 2024. My contention was that Donald Trump poses a mortal danger to the party in two main ways: He either gets what he wants, or he doesn’t.
At the time, it was clear that Trump would be seeking reelection but the question of whether he would face criminal charges stemming from any number of ongoing criminal investigations remained to be seen. (As we now know, two of those investigations have resulted in charges, with others still ongoing.)
Also at that time, Trump had just led the Republican Party through yet another disastrous midterm. Republicans failed to take back the U.S. Senate and only by the narrowest of margins did they take back the U.S. House. Furthermore, Trump-backed candidates lost resoundingly in competitive races and Republican-backed measures to restrict abortion were handily shot down as voters issued a referendum against the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Donald Trump and his brand were bruised and beaten.
Yet, at the same time there was a possible off-ramp emerging for the Republicans. There was a rising star who seemed like he might be a contender to break the party free from Trump’s stranglehold: Ron DeSantis.
DeSantis does not — and did not — represent a sea change for Republicans. Not at all. Politically, DeSantis and Trump are cut from the same cloth. But what DeSantis did represent was an opportunity for Republicans to break free of Trump himself.
It was a chance for the party to align itself with a Trump-esque candidate who doesn’t have half the baggage that Trump does.
Unfortunately for the G.O.P., Donald Trump is the Republican Party. He has made it what it is today and if you think Trump would go quietly into the night while his protégé takes the nomination away from him — think again.
This presented a Sophie’s choice for Republicans: Nominate Trump and waltz to yet another potential general election loss, since 2016 looks more and more like the exception rather than the rule for MAGA electability. Or, the G.O.P. could choose a candidate who is like Trump and may fare better in the general, but would have to face the wrath of a scorned actual Trump.
In that case, Trump would pack up his ball and leave. I don’t think he’d hesitate to take his base of voters and his money and leave the G.O.P. to form his “America First” party or whatever he’d call it. And with a fractured Republican Party in 2024, the election goes to the Democrats.
That was my contention in November of 2022.
The Present Day
A lot has changed since I wrote that column, however.
Trump’s baggage has only gotten worse. The federal indictment against him for allegedly mishandling classified records is truly damning — let alone how obvious his attempts to obstruct the investigation were. And, his baggage could get worse even still! There are ongoing investigations into possible election interference in Georgia and there’s still the possibility of charges from Special Counsel Jack Smith related to the January 6th insurrection.
Trump will, of course, do everything in his power to delay all of these cases and trials until after the election, but even if he succeeds in doing so — all that means is that these charges and allegations hang over his head on Election Day.
But things have also changed with Ron DeSantis and not in a way I had predicted: He’s just not a very good candidate (more on this below).
In fact, the more that Ron DeSantis campaigns the worse his poll numbers.
An NBC News poll released on June 26th found Ron DeSantis is polling at 22-percent among Republican primary voters, while Donald Trump is at 51-percent — Bigly, as Trump would say!
But, compare those numbers to the same poll back in April — when DeSantis wasn’t even a candidate yet — and DeSantis was at 31% while Trump was at 46%.
Ron DeSantis has only lost ground since he officially became a candidate, while Trump is gaining.
I think there are a few reasons why this is happening.
First, I agree with the analysis on Let’s Talk Elections, which contends that DeSantis waited too long to announce his campaign. He was zig-zagging across battleground states for months prior to officially launching his campaign. He even went to Japan for some reason? He was acting like a candidate without being one and that allowed Donald Trump and his campaign to go on the offense.
Trump was quick to assign the nickname Ron “DeSanctimonious” and excoriate DeSantis at rallies. Meanwhile, not-a-candidate-DeSantis really couldn’t say much back. There was little ability for him to respond since he wasn’t officially running yet.
Second, the indictments of Trump had the opposite, yet still predictable, effect of boosting Trump’s numbers among Republicans. Any other candidate would be buried under these allegations. Not Trump, though. He’s only seen his poll numbers go up as his campaign and the right-wing media pound the narrative that the Justice Department has gone off the rails on a political witch-hunt of the former president. The media knows all too well, if you repeat something enough the narrative will eventually grab hold. Clinton’s sock drawer anyone?
All this deflection, of course, completely ignores what is actually alleged in the federal indictment against Trump, and his astoundingly irresponsible and allegedly criminal behavior when it comes to national security.
Third, DeSantis simply doesn’t have the personality that Trump does.
DeSantis just isn’t very charming. This is subjective, of course, but he doesn't seem to work a room the way Trump can. Love Trump or hate him, he can be charming, witty, and funny. I haven’t really seen that side of DeSantis (if he has those capabilities at all).
And finally, DeSantis chose the wrong lane.
By now you’ve probably heard about this abhorrent ad that was retweeted by one of DeSantis’ campaign accounts. Besides the fact that it celebrates, quite literally, the “draconian” policies toward LGBTQ rights that Ron DeSantis has enacted in Florida, the ad does little to benefit to the candidacy of DeSantis, except providing mere attention.
The advertisement paints Donald Trump as the more moderate candidate, particularly on the issue of transgender and LGBTQ rights.
First, no one out pizzas the hut. How is it desirable to be more extreme than Donald Trump?
Second, why is that the lane that DeSantis wants to be in? He should be goldilocks-ing himself between Trump on the right and the moderates such as Chris Christie. Christie’s poll numbers are abysmal so I’m not suggesting that moderating will help DeSantis win the nomination, but as I’ve said ad nauseam, he had the opportunity to appear to be the more electable version of Trump — what Republicans need if MAGA is going to win.
Instead, he’s chosen to present himself as the more draconian anti-LGBTQ candidate when 71-percent of Americans support the right for same-sex couples to marry. That not only puts DeSantis at odds with the general electorate of the country — it puts him at odds with a big chunk of his own party.
Sure, often candidates go to the extreme during the primary to appeal to their base only to later soften their approach in the general election, but being this far off from where the public stands on an issue and then leaning into it? Well, that might come back to bite you.
(It should be noted that DeSantis’ campaign didn’t produce the ad, but it tweeted it from an official channel.)
Final Thoughts
So, while I still believe my original contention is theoretically correct — that if the G.O.P. nominates someone other than Trump the party will likely split in two, at least temporarily — it appears that version of history is simply not going to play out.
It’s certainly too early to say DeSantis’ campaign is D.O.A. but it feels that way. Any number of things could change that, such as how DeSantis does on the debate stage or if Trump’s criminal liability ever finally catches up with him politically. It’s impossible to say at this point.
But as of today, the Republicans appear to have made the decision to stay with Trump for worse … or worse.
As I mentioned, Donald Trump may have the Republican Party on lock but his electability is still a serious issue.
Trump is no longer a wildcard like he was in 2016. People know what they’re going to get with him. And as much as people might want to downplay or deny the things he’s accused of doing, I think there are plenty of moderates and independents who will soul-search about what a second term of President Trump might look like.
After all… at best on January 6th, 2021, Trump sat at the White House and watched T.V. while his supporters attacked police and desecrated the Capitol in an attempt to block the peaceful transition of power. At worst? He actively spurred on the attempted insurrection. In either case, should that person be given the power and responsibility of the presidency again?
Trump also took dozens of classified records with him from the White House and kept them in insecure locations around Mar-a-Lago. He also allegedly showed them to multiple people who were not authorized to see them, and when the U.S. government demanded their return he allegedly instructed his aide to hide boxes from his attorneys. Yet, Trump is asking Americans to trust him with our state secrets again?
I know there are talking points for Trump supporters on each of these issues, but they’re often mischaracterizations, deflections, or some kind of what-about-ism.
We should be honest, though. If Trump’s electability is an issue, so too is President Biden’s given his age and questions about his vitality. These are fair questions and will present challenges for Biden during his campaign.
As a president, Biden is far from perfect — but my takeaway is that he doesn’t need to be perfect to win. He just needs to not screw it up, and — agree with me or not — I just don’t think he’s done that.
He has achievements he can tout on the campaign trail and debate stage, just as he has shortcomings that Republicans will seize on. But the fact is, Biden is in a good position for reelection.
Depending on what forecast you look at, Biden may already have perhaps 240, or 260 likely electoral votes. If that’s correct and Biden can secure Pennsylvania again (which helped propel him to the presidency in 2020) and hold on to Wisconsin, then he’s pretty much got it in the bag. Assuming no seismic shifts, he could lose Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada (all of which he won in 2020) and still hit 270.
So, with things looking like we’re headed toward a Biden-Trump rematch, in the short-term I think the Republican Party has averted crisis. By sticking with Trump the party will unify around him and Trump won’t have reason to want to break off and start his own MAGA party.
But, in the long term? How many times will Republicans keep doing the same thing and expect different results? How much longer are they going to stay with Trump if he loses in 2024? At what point does it end?
What do you think?